Stronger for Longer

"The Tortoise and the Hare" is a famed fable, which is most commonly associated with the dictum slow and steady wins the race. This dictum has given rise to my new philosophy: stronger for longer. In this post, I will explain why investors should always have this at the forefront of their minds. 

In a recent gym session, I pushed myself particularly hard. Consequently, my left quadricep froze, causing inflammation around my knee. A few days later, my lower back muscles went into spasm. I am now using compression, a foam roller and ice-packs to help my leg and back heal. This is the second time my knees have become irritated, and the third time my back has gone into spasm. Clearly, I have injured myself far too frequently in the gym. Thus, I have decided that I must be more careful in the gym, and dedicate more time to post-workout stretching. 

My repeated experiences in the gym have finally reminded me of "The Tortoise and the Hare"; I have concluded there is no point attempting to go too far too fast, only to suffer from an injury. It is better to make slow and steady progress.

So, why should all this matter to an investor? Amongst athletes and active-types, making gains is a colloquialism used to refer to getting stronger, and building muscle mass. Too many people are in a rush to make such gains. Too many people get injured in this rush.

Investors are in the business of seeking gains - albeit of a different kind. And, surprisingly - or unsurprisingly - investors too are in a rush to make gains. Thus, it is important for investors to remember that the race is won through patience, and disciplined capital allocation - not by chasing quick money; it is always better to avoid an injury that will land you back at square one. Let us all seek to be stronger for longer.

Howard Marks on Investing

In my previous post, I criticised the decision of the Oaktree management Company to sell itself to Brookfield. I continue to believe that Mr. Marks did not act in the best interest of the minority shareholders. However, I have decided that it is still worth continuing to learn from Marks' investment approach. Thus, in this post, I have collected my thoughts relating to the following Howard Marks Investor Series Interview at Wharton. I have added my thoughts to Mr. Marks' comments. 

                                                   Source: Wharton School Youtube

What makes money?

Uncertainty is a money machine. As Wilbur Ross puts it, "Investors often find themselves running into burning buildings", or as Howard Marks puts it, in the investing world, you "have to be willing to catch a falling knife". Given that as an investor one is usually being bold in distressed situations, one must search for two things: A margin of safety and conviction. 

"The margin for error comes primarily from being able to use conservative assumptions and then still be looking at a generous rate of return; But, I must say that it it's not true that the the more conservative the better, because you can get to the point where you can make assumptions that are so conservative that you'll never lose money, but it will give you a target buying price which is so low that you'll never buy anything."

To be comfortable making a decision, you have to have a good idea about what a company is worth - come up with a conservative estimate - and buy it for less. The discount to valuation despite conservative estimates should provide you with a margin of safety. However, as with all things in life, moderation is key. This is because if you are excessively conservative, then you will simply be rationalizing inaction. 

Emotions are a roadblock to harnessing the power of uncertainty. This is partly what Warren Buffett may mean when he says that we must be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are feeling greedy. In effect, when every one is greedy, they become less conservative - often without realising it - and when everyone is fearful, they become too conservative. Instead of thinking about it in black-and-white terms, perhaps it would be more appropriate to say that one must approach investing with a healthy balance of optimism and caution. What I understand from Mr. Buffett's statement is that when everyone is optimistic, it is important to tread cautiously, and when everyone is scared, it is important to be optimistic - whilst still remaining cautious.

"The knife falls until the dust has settled, until all the uncertainty has been resolved. But, the trouble is that once that happens then the price will have rebounded. So, we want to buy at a time of upset and while the knife is still falling, and I think that the refusal to catch a falling knife is a rationalization for inaction. It's our job to catch falling knives; that's how you get bargains; but, you have to do it carefully."

In effect, a big downmarket is when one is required to be bold. But, one must be eternally cautious. This can be emotionally difficult. In an environment in which it is instinctive to be scared, one must become emboldened; as an investor you must always be rational!

Be contrarian - and right - to "make the really big money". Catching a falling knife, requires you to go against the herd. You must be contrarian, and right to really generate a substantial return. 

"You make the really big money in this world by unhooking from the market when everybody's happy, and nobody could think of anything that could ever go wrong, and everybody thinks that the trees are going to grow to the sky, and so you should sell up here. And then, the market collapses and nobody can think of anything that could ever go right again, and every stock price is devoid of any optimism at all, and that's a great time to buy. But to be [able to do] that you have to be a contrarian, and you have to be able to diverge from the crowd."

Being contrarian requires you to use what Howard Marks frequently refers to as "second-level thinking." In today's world, where information is instantaneously and universally available, second-level thinking means interpreting facts differently, thinking differently, and reacting differently.

"Everybody receives the same inputs. We [all] read the same newspaper [...] but some of us see the news and the prices as a buy signal, just when most people see the news and the prices as a sell signal, and vice versa. And you want to be in the minority. [You know,] there are three stages of a bull market. The first stage is when only a few unusually perceptive people believe that there could be some improvement. The second stage is when most people accept that improvement is actually taking place, and the third stage is when everybody and his brother believes that things can only get better. You make a lot of money if you buy in the first stage. You lose a lot of money if you buy in the last stage. You buy the same things as everyone else, but what matters is when you buy them and at what price."

We have said that contrarianism is an indispensable ingredient for investing success. However, we must not be contrarian just for the sake of it. There are thousands of investment professionals, who are usually - on average - right; thus, if we are to hold a contrarian view point with conviction, we must question our interpretation and views to make sure we are right. There is, after all, no prize for being contrarian and wrong - indeed, being contrarian and wrong yields nothing but punishment.

The past, the present and the future.

The past is a good indicator for the future. Cycles repeat themselves, and learning from past experiences is a good way to prepare yourself for future experiences; being able to effectively compare and contrast the present with the past enables us to make better decisions. 

Mark Twain once said, "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes".

As is almost always the case in the investment world, we must tread cautiously when we compare with the past. This is because our comparisons are often flawed. Firstly, the past can be viewed through an array of lenses, which makes it difficult to determine what really constitutes the past. Moreover, history only rhymes, and cycles cannot be counted upon; there is no such thing as market timing! Marks also makes a point of reminding new entrants into the investing world, that it has not been boom-crash all the way through; there may well be periods of low, steady growth, or even just stagnation.

Yet, there is little doubt, that a detailed, far-reaching study of the history of financial markets is likely to make everyone a better investor. It is also likely that past management decisions of a company are an indicator of forthcoming decisions.

Today is on the way to tomorrow. Businesses must survive this year before making it to the next. Thus, it is important to consider the ability of a business to navigate the present business environment; this may require financial ability, technological ability, or execution skills. Moreover, decisions today will affect the company's future; indeed, Jeff Bezos says that "[a quarter's results were] baked three years ago," so surely what a company is doing today could also be a pretty good indicator of where it might be three years later!

Investors can't escape dealing with the future. This is because what you are willing to pay for a business today is a function of what you think its earnings will be in the future. However, the future is inherently uncertain, and so people's opinions of the future change continuously. These changes are reflected in asset prices. This is what allows contrarian investors to generate returns.

Building an investment team.

In Pioneering Portfolio Management, David Swenson says that investing requires “a rich understanding of human psychology, a reasonable appreciation of financial theory, a deep awareness of history, and a broad exposure to current events”. Thus, investing is a challenging, interdisciplinary field.

"Hire rational grown-ups with a long-term orientation. [As a contrarian investor] you only really make money in downturns. That is less than 20% of the time." 

Consequently you need partners who possess integrity, and an ability to "[grind] it out". You need people who are curious, investigative, and contrarian. And of course, you need people who are extremely patient and humble. 

The future of the investing world

Passive Investing dominates. In recent years, low cost ETFs have gained in popularity. This is likely the result of three things. Firstly, these funds have low costs. Second, actively managed funds can be mismanaged. And, third, during the long economic recovery after the financial crisis, alternative asset managers have struggled to generate alpha. This  has two particularly significant implications. Firstly, asset managers are being forced to be more competitive on price. Secondly, asset managers with poor performance are being eliminated from the industry. Thus, this is a relatively 'tough' time for asset managers, who previously received extremely high compensation. Whilst it is unlikely that the active asset management industry will return to its glory days, I believe it is possible that alternative strategies will come back into favour following a downturn.

Investing requires skill - but also luck. As larger numbers of skilled asset managers have entered the field, the market has become more efficient. This - coupled with the low interest rate environment [in the US] - has produced a low return world. In addition, owing to the paradox of skill (Success Equation, Micael Mauboussin), luck has become a more important determinant of returns. 

Fear not for there is hope. Whilst asset management is harder, and perhaps not as financially rewarding as it used to be, it remains an intellectually stimulating field, which continues to reward its successful players handsomely. Indeed, it is also possible that in light of the aforementioned challenges, people will seek alternative opportunities and careers. This will only increase the opportunity available to those who continue to seek stakes in high quality, well run businesses which are available at a (discount to) fair value.