Identifying Long-term winners.

• Your circle of competence is where you can 'understand' the future economics of the business. You must define your circle of competence and stay inside of it. You don't need to be smart; if you are strong is some spots and you stick around these spots, you will do well.

• It is hard to identify the winners even in a winning industry. Industries and companies are different things. (cars, airlines: both industries have consistently lost money) 

• It is easier to identify the losers than the winners, when change is coming. 

• The aristocrats of business change over time. Today's Giants will eventually be giant no-more.